YOU MAY THINK THAT THE SWITCH TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES, IS AN INEVITABLE PROSPECT . WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIND SPACE, THAT IS DRIVING THIS CHANGE, BOTH IN THE MEDIA ,AND IN THE GOVERNMENT , IT MAKES SENSE ,TO GET A CLOSER LOOK AT FACTS.
Globally, transport accounts for 23% of the energy-related CO2 emissions, that feed global warming. Carbon emissions from the sector, are estimated to grow faster than most other sectors in the coming future. Therefore, decarbonization of transport, has seen a growing sense of seriousness among policymakers, and is now being viewed as an essential means to achieve, the global climate change mitigation targets.
India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, and, its national actions will significantly impact, the abatement of persisting emissions. India is also a party to the 2016 Paris agreements, and has made commitment ,to reducing emissions ,by one third, of its previous levels of 2005, by, the year 2030.
The transport sector in India, is presently powered almost entirely by carbon-intensive gasoline-based fuels. This is about 18% of the net emissions, from the entire Indian economy, in an year. The sector is largely oil dependent, and accounts for 13 % of the country’s energy-related CO2 emissions. While these numbers are extremely high, they are still well below the highest emitters such as China and the United States.
so should one be worried ? yes , because this is likely to change in a big way in the future! A Global Carbon Project report, out in 2018, points out ,that India’s carbon emissions are rising, more than twice as fast, as the global rise . As many would know, the per capita ownership of vehicles, is very low in India , even including that of goods and public transport. The average percentage of households that own a car in India, stands at 7.5 per cent, and that of those ,who own a two-wheeler ,stands at 49.5 per cent. As per the government figures, there are some 280 million registered vehicles, on the Indian roads . It could be considered still low perhaps , to service a 1.4 billion population. But the fact is, the economy is growing , the population is growing and the ownership of vehicles has grown quickly in the last decade ,and is well slated to grow, in the next one too.
Let us explain this, through some numbers . As per the figures put out by SIAM - society for Indian Automobile Manufacturers - The automobile sales in india, is at an average of 21.5 million plus units, in the last 6 years ,including that of the two years of pandemic, when the sales fell over 20%. In fact , the sales from the high of 26 million in 2017-18 fell ,to 20 million units, in 21-22. But, this is set, to rise again .
Going by many indications, the growth is normalizing in India. If the automobile sector start to add 25 to 30 million vehicles every year, from here on , then, we are talking about anywhere between 250 - 300 million new vehicles on the road, by the close of this decade . Accounting for some residue of the existing fleet of vehicles, already on the roads , India could be competing with China ,for the largest share of vehicles on its roads in the world, by 2030.
So what does this mean for India? In the business as usual scenario, it would mean, that the country’s busy roads ,will further choke to a stall with this increase in vehicles, but , there are other worries ! The bigger problem is, that of air quality ! What China is seemingly, in control of, and ,what India is woefully short on, for the moment ! As per WHO estimates, in a report in 2016,ten out of the twenty most polluted cities in the world, are in India. This study is based on the concentrations of PM2.5 emissions in the air which is most harmful, to human health. India was ranked the fifth most polluted country by WHO, in 2019, in a report which said that , 21 among the top 30 most polluted cities in the world , were in India. The Indian cities, on an average, exceeded the WHO threshold on air quality parameters ,by an alarming 500% ! The quality of air, is already at the threshold of toxic on an average , in the cities ,and towns, of a densely populated country. So all this development and increase in the number of vehicles could be, a double whammy for human health , for a country like India, if ,there is no serious control on the emissions.
Barun Agarwal of Breathe Easy consultants- who work on the air quality problems in Delhi and NCR calls this a national emergency. He says the problem is huge and is not restricted just to the metros of Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai . He believes and demonstrates graphically from a map that the entire northern gangetic plains , including even some higher reaches of that area, suffers from poor air quality . He cites long term health concerns for people exposed to this on a daily basis causing the particulate matter to enter not only the human lungs but also the blood stream which then leads to a systemic organ deterioration. He says that in other countries when the outdoor air pollution is approaching 50 microns , it is a red flag , while in India it is BAU when the figures are over 100 at various places in the country and that too on a regular basis. Now, this coming from an home grown expert is bad news .
So what is the answer and more importantly - response from the government . It would be fair to say that the government is seized of the matter . India’s transport policies have evolved rapidly over the last two decades . While the environment protection act was formulated in 1986, and the motor vehicles act in 1988 the exigencies of present times rapidly led to rejig of policies from 2001. two important one’s in the context of this piece are the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP), 2006 and National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2013. Further, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and EV (FAME) was introduced in 2015 to reduce the initial purchasing costs and early adoption of EVs and hybrid vehicles. This was followed by FAME II in 2019 .
In the last couple of years the government has zeroed in on a mitigation strategy to combat pollution . It is four pronged and involves 4 areas of concern .
a) modal shift to greener transport b) vehicular efficiency c) Electric Vehicles d) Biofuels
Let us examine each of them and their respective challenges
A-modal shift to greener transport
According to the Union minister for roads and Highways Mr Nithin Gadkhari - India has the second largest road network in the world with 58,00,000 kms .Only 2% of this network is are national highways and 70% of the goods in the country is transported on a road network he says - meaning efficient , green and modern . His plans are to get this to double in few years time.
Overall , roads account for 87% of all goods and people movement in the country. railways , which are much efficient modes of transport in terms of cost and emission account for only 11%. Air and waterways are minuscule. ‘why would you not expand the railway infrastructure’ ? you may ask . well ! The Indian railways, which is a state monopoly is a loss making enterprise and largely remains a low cost people carrier .There are political ramifications to increase prices. while in the case of roads , these can be built quickly and tolls are a good way to offset the cost and manage the subsequent maintenance.
Another mode of transport that India is betting big on is aviation - according to the government website 'investindia'-
‘In 2010, 79 million people traveled to/from/or within India. By 2017 that doubled to 158 million, and this number is expected to reach 520 mn by 2037. With the air passenger traffic projected to increase, the Indian aviation industry is on a high-growth path. India witnessed double digit growth in domestic air cargo of 12.1% in 2018-19 over 2017-18. Total cargo handled reached 3.56MMT.The nation’s airplane fleet is projected to quadruple in size to approximately 2500 airplanes by 2038. Currently, the country has 130 operational airports including 29 international, 91 domestic, and 10 custom airports. To augment the airport infrastructure the government aims to develop 100 airports by 2024 (under the UDAN Scheme) and expects to invest $1.83 bn in the development of airport infrastructure by 2026.The Indian Civil Aviation MRO market, , stands presently at around $900 million and is anticipated to grow to $4.33 billion by 2025, increasing at a CAGR of about 14-15%'
This could be much needed for India and its economic progress but does this spell well for emissions? Aviation as many know accounts for 2.5% of global carbon emission and efforts are on to reduce the same world over .India perhaps, cannot afford to at least for the moment but needs to at some stage. The union minister for transport Nithin Ghadkari recently said that a ‘multimodal approach in transport will only enable india to a 5 trillion dollar economy’. Now , that is sensible perhaps but does multiple modes lead to lower emission . Yes in some cases they do ! , In the case of the move to mass rapid transit in the bigger metros and smaller cities , it is helping and more of it is even required for india . Here there is a payback for the government on its investment and the citizens enjoy a cheaper travel inside a city .Things have worked out quite well in the last 5 years or so with many of the metro projects starting to see completions but more are needed as people are gravitating to the bigger cities and towns as the economic activity accelerates at these places.
India is far flung and geographically diverse country. It will struggle to have a one plan fits all kind of a solution. Therefore any lower cost alternative to reduce emission is paramount. While walking , cycling and reducing carbon footprint is seen as an urban middle class trend , these lifestyle changes would take many years to create a significant impact considering the size of the problem .
B- Second thrust from the government has been on vehicular efficiencies . Today all new vehicles are on Bharat stage 6 or BS 6 which is equivalent of Euro 6 emission norms . Both the automotive sector and the government has worked quite hard to transform the technologies and implementation respectively starting year 2000 when the emission norms were first brought in. Besieged with the magnitude of the problem of air quality , a court directed advancement to BS6 was achieved from BS 4 skipping the BS 5 level completely. This was done in April 2020 - a year ahead of schedule.
In addition fuel economy standards have been mandated for all passenger cars and heavy duty vehicles .The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE)—an agency within the India Ministry of Power notified minimum fuel efficiency norms for passenger vehicles. Two sets of Average Fuel Consumption Standards were announced in 2014- one set for fiscal years 2016-17 to 2020-21 and another for fiscal year 2022-23 onwards .Basically this mandates an improvement over time aided through better technology from the auto makers. Indian passenger vehicles sales both the 2 and 4 wheeler have traditionally seen a correlation with fuel economy not because of any mandate but simply because that fuel cost per litre of gasoline is and always been very high relatively and even compared globally .This affects the citizen where it hurts most and automakers pay heed to this requirement quite closely.
C- Electric vehicles - With road transport slated to be the number one means of transport for many years to come and no replacement in sight , the government in India , clearly is in a bind . So the best alternative would be to make road transport in itself a less polluting one . With this in mind , the government has launched an ambitious drive towards EV’s . The NITI Aayog which is a planning body for the government, made an announcement that said if FAME II and other measures are successful, India could realize EV sale penetration of 30% for private cars, 70% for commercial cars, 40% for buses, and 80% for two- and three-wheelers by 2030. Now the government is all set to use this as the target to be achieved so that all the sins of carbonization can be washed away and India can continue to be on the growth curve, keeping pollution from vehicles in check. But is this plausible ?
Well! let us examine this issue in a little more depth - until 2019 the Electric vehicle penetration was approximately a meagre 100,000 units in total . This is despite all kinds of policy measures and hype in prevalence, from nearly 5 years prior. To my mind, what enabled a change in mindset can be attributed to two things - rising fuel costs and slowdown in the economy . 2019-20 was the first time in many years when sales of vehicles in general was in the negative .The fuel cost went to over a dollar per litre of gasoline and continued to rise. Then came the pandemic. By then the need for a low cost transport more than a less polluting one, became imperative. India reigns as the world's biggest market for scooters and motorcycles with a sale of 19 million units in 2018. Therefore some thing was going to give and it did.
Citizens as usual looked for the change . The passenger 3 wheeler market which is largely unorganized had already started to look for local battery powered solutions and were very early adopters in the metros. As things would have it , few manufacturers had a skeletal offering in 2 wheel and three wheel segment and it was lapped up , prompting more to join the fray. Ather Energy, a Bengaluru based hardware start up, launched the India’s first electric scooter “S340”. The scooter covered the distance of 60 Km in one single charge and had a Lithium Ion battery pack IP67. As claimed by company, the S340 offers an un-compromised ride for 50,000 km. As on date there is a plethora of players in the two wheeler segment and also some in the 4 wheeler and action definitely is on the increase.
As per data available with the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways A total of 13,92,265 Electric Vehicles (EVs) are being used on the roads of India as on 3rd August 2022, what does not get told more often is that more than 50% of them are e-autos/e-rickshaws. In comparison, there are 27.81 crore or 278.1 million registered non-electric vehicles. While the ratio appears small, it is slowly improving. The total no. of Electric vehicles sold in india in the last 4 quarters Q2 21 to Q1 22 is impressive - 6,53,000 numbers . This volume has come mainly from 2 and 3 wheelers .electric two wheelers is 63% , electric 3 wheelers for passenger commute is 27%. while electric 3 wheeler for cargos is at 4% of the total sales . Cars or 4 wheelers -passenger and private is 5%. e buses are less than 0.5%. Now let us go back to the desired outcome for the country i.e. - at least 50% of all vehicles in 2030 to be on run on electricity , which would be anywhere between 150 - 200 million by volume at that point in time . This gives a targeted breakup of somewhere between 15-20 million a year starting now . Unfortunately the base figure is at a little more than half a million in the past year . therefore it does not need an expert to figure out that this will require quite a steep upward trajectory.
The minimum to aim for as a target if one is serious about getting even close to the target, would be to double the presence of EV's on Indian roads every year . An exponential growth is needed in the first 5 years from now on. But there are some challenges . let us enumerate some .
a) Infrastructure for charging - So the oft repeated question everywhere - globally , across countries is do we have enough charging stations? so it is a need of the hour . how many does india have . As per the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), as of March 25 2022, a total of 10,76,420 EVs were on Indian roads and a total of 1,742 Public Charging Stations (PCS), are operational. More importantly how many does India need if it’s ambition with electric vehicles need to play out.To understand this better let us look at the conventional (fossil fuel) fueling infrastructure in India .There are nearly 80,000 petrol stations and all of which presumably are at public locations to service the present number of vehicles (27 crore ). Does that mean if EV’s have to be 50% of the market in the future off course , the strike rates need to be as similar ? Perhaps not.
There is one thing which does not happen with petrol and gasoline . That is home charging . experts have divided consumption profiles for EVs on these patterns - residential societies , corporate complexes charging for office goers , highway charging for travelers and long distance commercial fleet. Inside the city charging for 3 wheel rickshaw , fleet cars , E buses etc. So, maybe the infrastructure will keep pace with requirement in India .
b)Kinds of chargers and specifications - The Ministry of Power has issued "Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles - the revised consolidated Guidelines and Standards" on January 14, 2022, to accelerate the e-mobility transition in the country. there is rationalization and citizens should cope . In any case , the Teslas of the world , which believe in their own chargers are still not in India
c)Lithium Ion batteries - At the moment a gold standard. Most batteries today are on Lithium ion technology .
lithium ion batteries account for 30-40% of the cost of an electric vehicle. Falling battery prices in recent years spurred its growth but the on going Russia Ukraine war has hit supply chains and stalled the slide in battery prices .Potential shortages of critical raw materials in the lithium ion battery namely Lithium Nickel Copper , Cobalt ,Manganese and graphite . With global demand for batteries estimated to grow tenfold , India will have worry about its options . For one, all these critical elements mentioned is imported at the moment . Even if plants to assemble and manufacture batteries are set up, as is being done currently in India, the raw material import supply chain and cost vagaries would continue to haunt the country .India does have deposits Nickel , Mn, Cu and Al . Also it is the second largest producer of graphite . It will still need to invest in mining them and also rely on imports of Lithium and cobalt in a big way . India’s minister of state for road transport and highways VK Singh has publicly stated that the ‘the country needs to get out lithium ion battery technology at the earliest as the country has no control over the commodity'.
While India mulls on its options for the future and continues in its journey of EVs in the current environment , there is some hope from researchers on the environmental footprint catastrophe of large scale mining - scientist have found a way to recycle the batteries . Retired batteries could be be used , they say to supply world’s next generation of lithium , Co and Mn and Ni . However these are still to be authenticated at any significant scale .
d)Safety -Another aspect with EV’s in India were some major concerns with its safety . The Ministry of road transport and Highways in India sent out notices to all EV manufacturers in the country in mid 2022 ,- to explain why they should not be punished for any fire related incidents which occur in their vehicles in the hands of the consumer . This seemingly sharp reaction comes in the wake of many fire related incidents especially amongst the two wheeler EV segment in the first few months of 2022 . The many incidents lead to loss of life, property and threatened to derail India’s first major rush into the EV world . This also lead to an uproar amongst the lawmakers and public as to the safety of the vehicles with an apparently thermal charged and volatile bomb in the form of a battery pack . Units were recalled and EV makers went back to reviewing their safety standards . While the incident is now slowly fading from the public memory , one may recall that fires in EV have been reported before and continue to be in the news ,from time to time ,across the world including in high profile Teslas and Bolts . It has been continuously argued that the battery pack is susceptible to operating temperature flashpoints and thermal management is a huge factor at play here . In India’s case though , possibly batteries of all kinds including some dubious ones have been imported from across the world by more that 100 companies now operating in the space , all of which has sprung up in the last few years that could have lead to the slip in safety standards. But interestingly and globally never has the EV world certified itself to be immune to a fire incident , not yet . Scientists are at pains to explain that the advent of battery technology is ever changing and striving to improve constantly . Lithium ion technology is giving way to LFP or phosphate technology standards, for better safety while doing away with reliance on cobalt is improving energy density which gives us higher mileage on a charge . Bottomline being that batteries will continue to evolve in all aspects and safety will also improve. Accidents, unfortunately could be around the corner but will definitely, be a rare occurrence. Now , is this aspect a challenge to the prospect of EV introduction in India . Hmmm, may be not so much but then all concerned need to be careful .
e)Taxes and rebates - there is no major let up on reducing it by the authorities. Cost of EV is no less or even higher than petrol and diesel vehicles, discouraging a faster consumer adoption . There is too much pressure on the automobile manufacturers to reduce cost while there is a reluctance to reduce taxes by the union and state governments. As per SIAM figures , the total taxes at the highest slabs on vehicles are close to 50% of the manufactured costs . The government has made the right noises and reduced the GST to 5% for EVs. Let us look into this aspect a little more.
World over ,there is a clamor to cut costs of electric vehicles and get it on par with ICE powered vehicles , so that the demand gets mainstream .In this scheme of things , the tax burden on the manufacturers and the customer in India on the contrary , continues to be on the higher side . At the manufacturer’s end , the applied taxes are of two kinds - GST , which for EV’s is a flat 5% across segments and a variable compensation cess between 1% and 22% . So a relevant , affordable category of electric cars ( for a mid income group of buyers ) with 170 mm ground clearance , length of more than 4 meters and an engine capacity more than 1500 cc , would attract an additional cess of 22% above the GST, taking its effective duty to 27% . there is more to contend with for the customer. at the retail end. To register a vehicle across any state across India , one will have to pay a Road tax , which is anywhere between 6-8% for electric cars and other charges like registration charge , hypothecation charge , state development charge or parking fees , number plate charge , temporary registration , fast tag etc. as applicable to a state where the tax is being applied . Most of this ,at the retail end become a state subject and therefore varies from one to another . While the center has put out various schemes for EV’s on its e - Amrit portal , like purchase incentives, coupons which can be reimbursed later ,interest reduction, road tax exemption , registration fee exemption ,Income tax benefit, scrapping incentives and other ,there is a lack of transparency , coherence and coordination and even compliance amongst its various states. While there is much pressure on the automobile manufacturers to reduce cost, there appears a reluctance to reduce taxes by the union and state governments and these measures are perceived by the citizens and the automakers both as largely cosmetic.
After electric vehicles the 4th and final strategy of the government is
D- Shift to bio fuels - To begin ,what is a bio fuel - It is broadly a fuel, distilled from processing any biomass. The term biomass refers to organic matter that comes from plants and animals . It can be anything even waste. Unlike other renewable energy sources, biomass can be converted directly into liquid fuels, called "biofuels," The two most common types of biofuels in use today are ethanol and biodiesel, both of which represent the first generation of biofuel technology. Ethanol is an alcohol used as a blending agent with gasoline to increase octane and cut down carbon monoxide and other smog-causing emissions. The most common blend of ethanol is E10 (10% ethanol, 90% gasoline) This is already approved for use with the present ICE engines in india . According to the ministry , All petrol in india used as on date carries a blend of 10% ethanol . Now this can go safely unto 20% with some modification by the auto manufacturers' in the present engines and this is slated to happen as well. With Automakers developing what is called flexible fuel vehicles, which are designed to run on E85 (a gasoline-ethanol blend containing 51%–83% ethanol, depending on geography and season), an alternative fuel with much higher ethanol content than regular gasoline. Biodiesel on the other hand is a liquid fuel produced from renewable sources, such as new and used vegetable oils and animal fats and is a cleaner-burning replacement for petroleum-based diesel fuel. Biodiesel is nontoxic and biodegradable and is produced by combining alcohol with vegetable oil, animal fat, or recycled cooking grease. Like petroleum-derived diesel, biodiesel is used to fuel compression-ignition (diesel) engines. Biodiesel can be blended with petroleum diesel in any percentage, including B100 (pure biodiesel) and, the most common blend, B20 (a blend containing 20% biodiesel and 80% petroleum diesel).
Summary - These are the essence of our discussion
India needs low carbon transport as urgently, if not more urgently than the world
Air quality problem in India is acute
Indian transport volume both in terms of goods , people and carrier is seeing a burgeoning growth much higher than any other country
Road transport will remain a favourite mode while this being also the main source of pollution and emission
Indian government has set tough emission targets for itself to achieve by 2030 and is rolling out schemes to facilitate the turnaround in technology and infrastructure
The biggest bet at the moment seems to be on the electric vehicle penetration to reduce fossil fuel induced emission.
Will these strategies work for India ? We do not know yet but the future will be a witness to it . At the moment both India and World should be worried and put their best foot forward to make it work for everyone's sake !
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