Conference of parties, as you perhaps know, is a global summit on climate change. It is held by parties, to the UNFCCC, on climate change. It is like an international treaty, with the primary aim, to stabilize, the greenhouse gas emission, globally.
Right after the Rio ‘earth summit’, the United nations, framework convention, on climate change was created in 1992. The first COP was held, in Berlin, in 1995. There has been one held every year, since then, except for 2020, when it was not held, due to Covid .
The Paris agreement of COP, brought about an ambition's meeting ground between the countries, and approximately 200 world leaders, representing them. what was agreed upon, was an historic, target of, plus 2 degrees Celsius increase in temperature, to be kept as a threshold, for the planet. This net change, was not to be crossed over, the 1990 levels, for the world to push back on the changing climate. This was unprecedented. And finally, a target of 2 degrees, became an overarching theme, for everyone, to rally towards. The climate change debate, rapidly democratized towards one parameter i.e. Greenhouse gases, and Net emissions, from member nations. Now it was for every concerned member nations, party to the Paris agreement, to lay out their Nationally determined commitments or NDC's, against this objective.
The COP, has been about pledges, plans, and commitments by member nations, in the last 5-6 years. The member nations, also pledged, to keep the Green House Gas emissions, below 1.5 degrees Celsius, through aggressive NDC’s.
This is the reason, Paris agreement, becomes the most common go to, for most climate change activists and crusaders, as much, for the global companies, and, economies . The Paris agreement, put in place, a review mechanism, and set a deadline, of 2025, for the measures proposed by member nations, to lead, to its objective of 2 degree rise, in global temperature . Unfortunately , 6 years since , the situation is as follows. The global emission, currently, is at, plus 1.1 degree Celsius, from the 1990 levels. If, the entire NDC’s, proposed by the member nations, are even, truly implemented, the emission levels actually would increase, to an alarming 2.4 degrees . That means that the nations are not collectively, committing enough to the cause. If every targets, are to be implemented, on the ground, the emission level, would still remain, at 2.1 degrees Celsius . With, full implementation, of every announced commitments, the target can move down, to a somewhat acceptable figure, of 1.8 degrees . This is the larger picture . On the ground, there are many existing and emerging realities. Let us look at ,some of them.
There is an increasing divide, between the developed nations , which comprises, of most of the European union , US , Canada, Japan and Australia, and, the developing world, which includes most of Africa , Latin America and Asia , with two big countries, in it ,namely, china and India. Then there are also nations, whose livelihood, and existence, is threatened, on account of climate change. They are the ones, demanding, quick action. The trouble is that, the developed nations, have contributed to the present level of pollution, and are seen as responsible, for the present state of the problem . At the same time the, developing ones are on the threshold of becoming more developed, and would require to emit CO2 to grow their economies . To add to this, the developed world, still continues to be the the largest polluters, even while they have outsourced the goods and services consumed by them, to the developing world. This is making the situation precarious and inequitable . equitable distribution has become a major sore point. Even as the developing nations, commit to a net zero emission level, for themselves, by the year 2050 , it wants the rest of the world to be net zero, by the same time. This would not be possible for the global south as the developing nations are referred to, without sacrificing, their own impending growth. They would need help in the form of new technologies and finance from the global North. Therefore, in good faith, it was agreed, that the developed world, or the global north, will help the global south - the developing ones, with financial assistance, and, newer technologies, for a faster adoption towards a less polluting world .
Unfortunately, this is not seeing much traction .A promise of 100 billion dollars, as a goodwill finance agreed upon as early as 2009, is still to be disbursed . So, the transition towards a greener world, is quickly seeing, a financial bottleneck, as most have realized, that, it is not billions that is required, but trillions of dollars, which is needed to make effective changes on the ground .
Now ! let us look at India's position, and status in the existing situation globally. India’s prime minister, Narender Modi , in his UNFCCC address, has sought 2.5 trillion dollars towards India’s first NDC goals . He said that India needs ,1 trillion dollar immediately . India’s problems are, ever slowly increasing, on many counts .
First issue is that, for India to cut its carbon intensity by 45 %, it will have to make, a substantial move ,away from its coal-reliant, power sector . According to a Bloomberg NEF data, more than 70% of India’s electricity came from coal power plants, last year.
Second is that India’s transportation sector, which contributes to near about one tenth, of India's GDP , relies, nearly nine-tenths on fossil fuel . The Air pollution levels, in most of the populated areas of India, especially in the gangetic plains, of Northern India, is abysmal, and is already crossing the threshold, of being toxic for humans . The ground water and the surface water as per many indications and studies, are largely polluted across the Country .
Extreme climate occurrences, are on the rise, as is being witnessed, over the last decade in the Indian subcontinent .The recent floods in Pakistan has been devastating. The Himalayas, is seeing its largest melting of ice over its entire history, on account of, global warming . Himalayas , is the source of many large South Asian rivers, which act as a lifeline, to millions of people along its path in India , Pakistan, Bangladesh , Nepal , China, and others.
In India ,the pressure is much on the national think tank ,from all quarters including that of UNFCCC. In response, India did well to formulate an action strategy, on emissions which said the following. India said, it will reduce 1 billion tonnes or 1 Giga Tonnes of CO2, from now, to 2030 . Basically, the increase is envisaged from, now at 2.88 GT to 4.48 GT in 2030, to be curtailed to 3.48 GT instead. India has promised, its 50% energy requirements to come from renewables - It wants its present capacity to scale to 500 Giga Watts of electricity, from non fossil fuel.
India has said that, it will reduce their carbon intensity, to less than 45% for the economy from 2005 levels by 2030. Off course, the prime minister, did announce a Net zero on emissions, by the year 2070 recently . Incidentally, china has promised to get to net zero by 2060, while the developed world, like we mentioned before has stuck to 2050, as their targeted year to achieve net zero emissions. India's per capita emission, will be one of the lowest, amongst all countries by 2030 at 2.6 tonnes per person, up from the present 2.3 tonnes per person, largely, on account of a high population count, projecting forward.
The targets specified in the case of India, look ambitious. While perhaps, Mr. Modi, has issued a caveat to India doing its bit, subject to availability of financial assistance, he in a way is echoing the sentiments of the developing world.
Notwithstanding the global financing situation, the question remains on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. How exactly would this be achieved? As per the numbers stacking up, if India and china fail to achieve curbs on emission, the world will not veer, towards reduction, and if they do indeed go the full hog, it will certainly set the tone for the entire, Asia and Africa to emulate, and take the world to a better place. Simply because, these are the regions, where the bulk of the population, in the world, is at the moment. For the world at large and for India in particular, the global geo politics, and state of economy in the last year, or so, is painting, a gloomy picture .
while the world, reeled under the impact of pandemic, and supply chain disruptions, in the last few years, the beginning of this year, saw the Russia - Ukraine war taking, centerstage. With war and inflation, hitting the western world, soaring price of oil and gas has and economies tanking, things are far from ominous. US which is major indicator of world economy has tightened up with interest rate hikes, and impending slowdown in growth, which in turn has forced a slow down, all across the globe. Europe is already under a recessionary trend, and under increasing pressure from the disruption mainly to its economy due to the war, in its neighborhood.
In this scenario, it will be unrealistic, to see global lending towards climate financing in a manner which is aggressive. Hence the pains of Glasgow, and COP 26 well may carry to COP 27, and Sharm el Sheikh.
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