Joshimath , Lithium , Adani and India's transformation to green

The last couple of months have passed quickly and in many ways been quite eventful .

There were many events and we choose a few which we consider are in the inflection zones regards environment and conservation for India. Let us start with the first one .

JOSHIMATH

Beginning of the year saw a cataclysmic play of events ,in the pilgrim town of Joshimath , in Uttarakhand, a gateway to Badrinath and a critical component of the 'char dham ' itinerary for a devout Hindu. The entire town of twenty thousand people saw a unique case of subsidence in almost a quarter of its built up construction . This drives a chill down the spine of every resident in not only Joshimath, but also makes mountain dwellers in the upper reaches of Himalayas, ponder over their future .

In the name of development many things have preceded this crisis . For one , nearly 800 kms of roads were either widened or built afresh in the last five years in the state of Uttarakhand alone. Hydroelectric projects which were stuck for environmental reasons have been given a fresh impetus.

Every nation along the Himalayas loves dams for its cheap hydro power. It is quite a misnomer to suggest that hydro power is green in nature . It is not ! the destruction and degradation of the environment which goes into trapping increasingly scarce water resources in higher altitudes is seen to be believed and the damage untenable.

In a post 'The Race to Dam the Himalayas' written for New york Times by Sunil S. Amrith , the author says "More than 400 dams are under construction, or planned for the coming decades, in Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan; at least 100 more have been proposed across the Chinese border in Tibet. If the plans come to fruition, this will be one of the world’s most heavily dammed regions. But these projects will aggravate international tensions. They carry grave ecological risks.'

Back home in India, and to the issue in question , the M C Mishra committee appointed in 1976 , clearly explained that Joshimath was situated on an old landslide zone and could sink, if development continued unabated, and he recommended that construction be prohibited in Joshimath. The 18 member committee which was formed then, laid out a set of recommendations such as -

Joshimath is a deposit of sand and stone — it is not the main rock — hence it was not suitable for a township. Vibrations produced by blasting, heavy traffic, etc., will lead to a disequilibrium in natural factors…

Construction should only be allowed after examining the load-bearing capacity of the soil and the stability of the site, and restrictions should also be imposed on the excavation of slopes.

It had said that for road repairs and other construction work, it was advisable not to remove the boulders by digging or blasting the hill side. Also, in the landslide areas, stones and boulders should not be removed from the bottom of the hill as it would remove toe support, increasing the possibility of landslides.

It has also advised against cutting trees in the landslide zone, and said that extensive plantation work should be undertaken in the area, particularly between Marwari and Joshimath, to conserve soil and water resources.

it was imperative that the local people were provided with alternative sources of fuel

Agriculture on the slopes must be avoided.

Water seepage in the area is profuse, therefore to prevent any more landslides in the future, the seepage of open rain water must be stopped by the construction of a pucca drainage system.

To prevent the erosion of the river bank, cement blocks should be placed in vulnerable spots on the bank

Fairly simple and sensible , one would observe . Over the years neither the government nor the town municipality apparently followed much of these laid out norms. They even went about and flouted every recommendation with impunity. To quote some of the excesses , the Tapovan Vishnugad hydro electric project in the vicinity of the town , entailed an underground tunnel of 20 km length which obviously needed to be drilled and stones blasted. This drilling apparently punctured a large unconfined aquifer , which meant that water was flowing underground and creating its own path removing earth and creating vacuum, all along its path.

when the news about the subsidence of Joshimath emerged , for a while it got every body's attention and on every aspect , on every element , the cracks in the buildings , displaced people and their rehabilitation , the warnings from the experts , reports of dangers of large scale construction in the vicinity , the focus on pleas and helplessness from the various NGO's in the area , cameras capturing the distress of the people and many such nuances.

One month later , the lights seemed to have gone off - there was little coverage of the aftermath though no follow up on the policy changes if any , the recovery process envisaged etc. Even the experts and NGO's , turned quiet. Two months , down the incident , there is hardly anything to be heard - from citizens , NGT , courts , activists, agencies and the government. why is that ?

let us take a step back and examine the bigger picture. On the day , when large scale cracks and cave-ins were recorded , the establishment in Dehra Dun , was taking a different line all together. A delegation from Chamoli district ,where Joshimath is , met the chief minister to urgently order an enquiry and take steps to stop the NTPC led power project as they believed it to be the cause of the problem. The answer was a swift 'no' from him and the administration. Until the residents of the Joshimath held a protest march on the night of the 5th of December , the local and the state administration did pretty much nothing!

A petition in the high court by an activist and a similar one in the supreme court brought about a directive and forced the administration into declaring the area as a national disaster zone and invoking the disaster management act into service. All this reversal was in a matter of a week.

To makes matters worse A preliminary report released the following week, by the Indian Space Research Organisation’s National Remote Sensing Centre, showed a “rapid subsidence” event in parts of Joshimath, while it showed “slow subsidence” up to 8.9 cm within Joshimath town. This was recorded over a period of 7 months since April 2022 . Another Cartosat-2S satellite data acquired by ISRO, recorded “rapid subsidence” of around 5 cm in just 12 days since December 27.

A day after ISRO publicised its assessment that showed Joshimath sank by 5.4 cm in 12 days, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued a gag order on a dozen government institutions and officials. This was on sharing data on social media and commenting in the media on "their own interpretations" of the land subsidence episode in Uttarakhand. Not surprisingly ISRO pulled down the report from its website immediately. The administration also picked up few cases of hotel buildings which had flouted or breached construction norms in the town precinct and demanded an immediate demolition as they were posing a risk to 40 big and small homes, shops and other structures in the vicinity.. When the matter to compensate came up , it was off hand refused, which caused the affected owners and the locals to protest again and this became the focus of the cameras for a while, along with the demolition process. This was turning into a 'news worthy ' event to the embarrassment of the government .

The chief minister had to personally get involved , first for eviction of families from their homes when they were reluctant to leave in spite of the danger , then for their rehabilitation to safer areas, and later for relief and compensation to people . An 18 member committee was formed for all remedial and coordinated action , which was a positive move .

While the people and the administration grappled with the recovery and rehabilitation process in the town and in the district of Chamoli in general, the bigger question on everyone's mind was on the future. By the end of the third week of January , just a little under two weeks after occurrence of large scale subsidence , the administration , was quick to declare normalcy. Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, was quoted by all mainstream news media as saying this "around 65% to 70% of the people in the town are living a normal life. The Chief Minister also added that "the Char Dham Yatra will kick off in four months".

Now this becomes a point of contention for any ecologist worthy of their name. Also this almost immediate stated recovery does not assuage environmental concerns in any manner. We can understand that here is a chief minister trying to get things back to as it was and also the whole process of tourism going for economic reasons. Yet ! this attitude is an indication of not having learnt from the incident and of a system that is geared to fall back and do more of the same. This is indeed worrying ?

So , one question that is asked is -what happens now to the power project in the vicinity ? What happens to the road construction and other development projects near Joshimath and elsewhere. The answer reveals perhaps, between the lines of the 'life is now normal' statement from the administration. While the work was temporarily halted at the power project , there are reports of the tunnel activity seeing some resumption .Before we get uptight on the specifics , it makes sense to look at the history of this particular project and others in the area .

The 'Tapovan Vishnugad' is a 520 mega watt capacity run-of-river project being constructed on Dhauliganga River in Chamoli District of Uttarakhand. It was commissioned in 2006, slated to be operational by 2013. The project apparently involves construction of a head race tunnel (HRT) , which involves building , rather boring through in parts by blasting , drilling and in most parts using a tunnel boring machine . The tunnel boring machine or the TBM has seen some mishaps - In 2009 it broke into an aquifer resulting in ingress of water into the tunnel. Then, it got stuck many a times inside the tunnel and once, for many months towards the end of 2012 . Broadly the project was delayed for myriad reason and the work stopped abruptly after the 2013 Kedarnath floods which took an estimated 6000 lives in the state. The project was recommissioned in 2016 and by then the cost of doing the project had more than doubled . It again took the brunt of floods because of an an avalanche in February 2021, where sadly as many as 180 of its personnel lost their lives. Now in 2023, it is where it is, still incomplete !

The chief minister and the officials in the government reacted quite sharply in the negative to the accusation about the power project being the cause for the subsidence in Joshimath . While most of the experts and the locals felt that the project did play a part in disturbing the eco system , the government did not see it that way. It is understandably invested into the project and cannot let go.

The Power Minister R K Singh on the 3rd of February said the area of subsidence in Joshimath was 15 km upstream from the components of the Tapovan-Vishnugad hydropower project and there were no signs of sinking of ground around its tunnel alignment.

In a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, Singh said land subsidence in Joshimath was "a very old issue" observed way back in 1976 and the M C Mishra Committee set up by the then state government listed "hill wash, natural angle of repose, cultivation area, because of seepage and soil erosion" as probable causes for cracks in the Himalayan town. The minister said a multi-institutional committee set up by the state authorities in July last year had made no mention of NTPC Tapovan-Vishnugad hydropower project causing land subsidence in Joshimath. Singh conveniently left out the crucial facts of blasting of hillsides and that pertaining to flouting of construction norms mentioned in the very M C Mishra report he chose to refer.

We are on the side, reminded of national interests . We are told that India needs to match up to China , in terms of defense buildup , hence connectivity is crucial . Also that the hill people themselves want connectivity and development. Does this become a consideration and also an excuse to do exactly as what China does - being aggressive with dams on its rivers and highways cutting through mountains. Are there no viable options ? Have we become closed and incapable of thinking any other alternative means to address issues of military or development. Can a citizen even desire that we become a soft power instead of a showy nation ?

The question is not whether a remote hilly area at high altitude should see development or its people seek a better quality of life ! The question is that of long term safety of the very same citizens and danger of irreversible damage to their environment !Therefore , every step even if it is based on the needs of the people of the area ,needs to be evaluated by the administration.

One gets an impression that the evaluation part is simply missing . Take this premise as an example .It has been pointed out that even if social and environmental costs are set aside, big hydropower projects are no longer economically viable. The cost of power from them is not less than Rs.6-7 per unit; cheaper power is available in the grid and from alternatives like solar and wind. The biggest evidence of this is the fact that the private sector is overwhelmingly uninterested in hydro projects and I would hazard to say that all of the hydro projects are built on government funds. In the near vicinity of Joshimath there is a slew of Hydro power projects , which include the already operating, 400 MW Vishnu Prayag Hydro Electric Project, the 520 MW Tapovan Vishnugad Hydropower Plant which is under construction, and the World Bank-funded 444 MW Vishnugad-Pipalkoti Hydro Electric Project which is also under construction. All this when India's reliance on Hydro power is merely 12% of its total installed capacity and as a strategy apparently ,does not allow for great savings either . while at the same time it comes with serious environment and social baggage. The least that the government can do is to clarify its strategy regards hydro power or it will be assumed that they are ill informed or worse, they simply do not care !

On this often talked about development aspect around Joshimath , there are various other projects lined up as well , which could be considered ecologically sensitive - there is the widening of the 5.5 km-long Helang-Marwari Char Dham highway, Asia’s longest Joshimath-Auli ropeway project, and the Rishikesh to Karnaprayag railway line, among others. It is well known and documented that the entire Char Dham highway project did not have an Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) report, environment appraisal, management plan or approval in the first place .The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways - conceived the project by dividing it into 55 stages of less than 100 kms length each, which meant they did not need an EIA clearance. Though this was condoned by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) as well as the judiciary, it is still seen as a service to the people of the area and not as any serious breach of norms by the state and the central government.

So where does all this finally lead up to. Some of the projects have been halted like the ropeway project. Maybe we could see some others halted or reconsidered. The power projects will end up resuming or it already has , going by the reaction of the ministers and officials .The road work involving the char dham high way project, in all probabilities will resume once the residents quieten down a bit in Chamoli and Joshimath and of course, it shall face no hindrance elsewhere in Uttarakhand. Transparency will take a back seat under the guise of National Disaster Management and things will be managed as if there was no disaster.

A pliant media certainly helps the government's cause .The NGO's operating in the area will have no voice or theirs will not be heard adequately for this reason . The insincere ones will put a price on their peace and more people will take this easy way out . The contractors and agencies will manage the rest .

The notable Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology , an institution under the Department of science and technology of the government of India was set up solely for the sustainability of the himalayan region in all manner. They are to provide sane advisory on these matters but has unfortunately remained largely quiet and in some cases even distorted reports to suit the agenda of development in the Himalayas.

Well ! It is a dangerous cocktail going forward and we can soon expect the next edition of the disaster waiting to happen.

to be continued ....

Bull Elephants in Musth - A short write up with FAQ's

Elephants are ecosystem engineers and play an important role in their native habitats, helping maintain the rich biodiversity of the spaces they share with other wildlife. Though elephants are native to only Africa and Asia, they hold significant cultural and symbolic meaning around the world.

Elephants in India belong to the Asiatic category . they are distinct from the African elephants . The Male elephants can be with out tusks and they are called Makhna. Most adult male elephants exhibit 'musth' ,a period of 2-3 months in a year ,characterised by a discharge of hormonal substance from their temporal glands , increase in body temperature and higher degree of testosterone levels .They exhibit aggressive and unpredictable behaviour and are usually kept away from the herd until they cool off . They could be considered dangerous around anything and anyone during this period. In the wild, female elephants live in herds, and form strongly bonded family units. Males only remain in the herd while they are young, and eventually leave to become solitary animals.

@greenstorycommunewithYogiRB ​https://youtu.be/FBsMYGLc4hs

What is a Makhna elephant ? 

'Makhna' is a Tamil Word, used largely in south of India and even in other places in India to describe a male or a bull elephant without their protruding tusks .

What is musth?

Musth is a completely natural phenomenon seen in healthy adult bull elephants, both tuskers and makhnas (tuskless bulls). Generally characterised by the secretion of a hormone rich substance called temporin from the temporal gland (on either side of the elephant’s head) and a steady trickle of urine down the back legs of the elephant, musth involves a rise in the reproductive hormones in the elephant’s body. This causes the animal to feel more restless, energetic, aggressive or unpredictable – and generally irritable and oversensitive to sounds and movements. Free access to water is extremely important, to allow the bull to cool down, stay hydrated and expend extra energy.

How long does musth last? Is the length and duration of musth a sign of good or bad health?

Musth typically lasts between 2-3 months and occurs in three stages – a 3-4 week premusth condition, a 4-5 week peak musth, and a 4-5 week post-musth condition.

For elephants in captivity though, the condition and its duration can vary greatly. Deprivation of food and nutrition can cause the elephant to go into musth less frequently and for shorter durations of time. For bull elephants that have easy access to nutritious food and are in good health, musth can last much longer – records of healthy bulls in captivity have shown them staying in musth for more than a year.

Young bulls generally start showing musth around 20 years of age.Musth generally continues till an elephant is about 55-60 years old. However, there is no reliable documentation of the exact average age at which elephants stop showing musth.

Is the musth secreted externally ? and where is the  temporal gland ?

musth is generally characterised by the secretion of a hormone rich substance called temporin from the temporal gland (on either side of the elephant’s head) and a steady trickle of urine down the back legs of the elephant . musth involves a rise in the reproductive hormones in the elephant’s body. 

The temporal gland is present on the elephants ‘temple’ area – between the eye and the ear. There is a tiny but visible perforation in the skin at the temporal gland from which a substance known as temporin is secreted when a bull is in musth. This manifests itself as a trickle of liquid down the sides of the elephant’s head, originating from the temporal gland.

Is the 2023 union budget truly a green budget ? what augurs for India, a broader context

Finance minister of India Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman presented her 5th straight budget and possibly her last in this term of of the government on February the 1st ,2023 in the Lok Sabha or the lower house of the parliament. Experts and pundits have lauded her efforts and some have been critical.

So, what do we make of it. From our point of view , we need to ask, if the budget provide any meaningful impetus for India ( the world's third largest polluter) towards mitigation of climate change or green house gas emission. Will this help India meet its commitment towards the Paris agreement and its own NDC with the IPCCC .

To begin , the minister mentioned 'green growth' as a priority and used 'sustainability' and 'green' many a times in her budget speech. And there were a slew of announcements too. We must keep in mind of India's G 20 presidency and the emphasis on climate change in that forum. Also the criticism from many quarters on India's slow pace towards their committed climate goals. So, was the finance minister serious about green growth in this budget? Were all the announcements made, truly reflective of a serious intent? let us examine them in some detail.

The big announcement was the enhancement of capital expenditure budget by 33% to 10 lakh crores or 1.25 trillion US dollars . The bulk of this is slated to be spent on infrastructure projects such as 50 additional airports, from identifying 100 projects to develop last-mile connectivity for sectors such as coal and ports. to railway infrastructure upgrades to public low cost housing under the 'PM Awas Yojna' and others.

Our high level observation are - with much construction in store in the coming years , comes more than ever before, anthropogenic ( human) activities - let us imagine runways ,buildings roads, tunnels , bridges being built all across the expanse of the country , mountains being cut , streams and water bodies being littered with debris , forest and trees being cut down , soil being disturbed , seemingly with no new safeguards in place and then habitations come in to swamp these developments . By any stretch , how can these be seen as environment friendly. While one may be right to argue that India does need a massive dose of infrastructure , the kind of infrastructure and the kind of progress that India requires ,is not being discussed or being alluded to in any public forum by successive governments.

Let us look at some recent examples .Over 50 hydroelectric projects are at various stages of readiness in the Himalayan region . Over thousand kilometers of roads have been built or improved upon in these mountainous terrains. Not only have these wreaked havoc in the last few years but there is grave danger of a human catastrophe of an unprecedented nature in the future too. Any large scale activities will spring up their own share of environmental concerns and this is anywhere in India. All we are saying is, pause and give it some thought. Even in terms of providing low cost housing for the poor , it would have been pertinent, if this had some environmental consideration - indigenous and eco friendly building material, rain water harvesting, composting , waste management etc. None is seen or heard , for the moment, at least.

Another major announcements the finance minister made was a capital investment of Rs 35,000 crore or 4.4 billion US dollars towards energy transition. She said this should help India towards a net zero future . As per the budget document , though, the funds would go to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Of this, Rs 30,000 crore will go to oil-marketing companies, and the remaining Rs 5,000 crores, will be spent on strategic petroleum reserves. . Clearly it is funding the fossil fuel driven industry - oil and gas , the main cause of emissions and resulting air pollution in the country . It remains to be seen if any of this goes for low carbon technologies in this sector . But how is this initiative a great one for net zero, one needs to ask .

The other big ticket announcements related to the environment , sustainability , agriculture, gainful employment and rural communities were as follows

-viability funding gap for battery energy storage system,

-20,700 crore outlay for inter-state transmission system for evacuation and grid integration of renewable energy from Ladakh,

-A green credit program to “encourage behavioral change” to be notified under the Environment (Protection) Act

-A scheme to promote alternative fertilizers .Centre to facilitate one crore farmers to adopt natural farming over the next three years. For this, 10,000 Bio-Input Resource Centre's to be set-up, creating a national-level distributed micro-fertilizer and pesticide manufacturing network.

-Atmanirbhar Clean Plant Program with an outlay of ₹2200 crore to be launched to boost availability of disease-free, quality planting material for high value horticultural crops.

-500 new ‘waste-to-wealth’ plants under the GOBARdhan (Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan) scheme to promote a circular economy. These will include 200 compressed biogas (CBG) plants, including 75 plants in urban areas, and 300 community or cluster-based plants at a total investment of Rs 10,000 crore.,

-Rs 19,700 crore for the National Green Hydrogen mission - a new project, ‘Mangrove Initiative for Shoreline Habitats & Tangible Incomes’ or MISHTI, which will involve planting mangroves along the coastline and on salt pan lands, wherever feasible, through convergence between MGNREGA, CAMPA Fund and other sources.

-Amrit Dharohar, another new scheme, will be implemented over the next three years to “encourage optimal use of wetlands, and enhance biodiversity, carbon stock, eco-tourism opportunities and income generation for local communities”.

-₹20 lakh crore agricultural credit targeted at animal husbandry, dairy and fisheries

-To make India a global hub for 'Shree Anna', the Indian Institute of Millet Research, Hyderabad will be supported as the Centre of Excellence for sharing best practices, research and technologies at the international level.

-A new sub-scheme of PM Matsya Sampada Yojana with targeted investment of ₹6,000 crore to be launched to further enable activities of fishermen, fish vendors, and micro & small enterprises, improve value chain efficiencies, and expand the market.

There were some innocuous ones , which lacked detail /was one off / seemed to lack intent , like ...

-A proposal to co-fire 5-7 per cent biomass pellets in thermal power plants, resulting in estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction of 38 million tonnes annually; this will ideally provide an income to farmers and reduce stubble burning.

-Digital public infrastructure for agriculture to be built as an open source, open standard and inter operable public good to enable inclusive farmer centric solutions and support for growth of Agri-tech industry and start-ups.

-Computerization of 63,000 Primary Agricultural Credit Societies (PACS) with an investment of ₹2,516 crore initiated.

-Energy efficiency and savings promoted for large commercial buildings through the energy service company model, via capacity-building and awareness about energy audits

-Four pilot projects for coal gasification and conversion of coal into chemicals- focus on agroforestry and private forestry; support to farmers belonging to Scheduled Castes / Scheduled Tribes who want to take up agroforestry

-Sovereign green bonds to be issued in public sector projects to reduce carbon intensity of the economy

-Agriculture Accelerator Fund to be set-up to encourage Agri-startups by young entrepreneurs in rural areas.

-Massive decentralised storage capacity to be set up to help farmers store their produce and realize remunerative prices through sale at appropriate times.

There were some which could possibly be election largesse.

-In the drought-prone central region of Karnataka, central assistance of Rs 5,300 crore will be given to Upper Bhadra Project to provide sustainable micro irrigation and filling up of surface tanks for drinking water. The state is set to have an assembly election in the first half of this year.

We liked few schemes which spoke of institutionalizing skill development , education

-Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana 4.0, to be launched to skill lakhs of youth within the next three years covering new age courses for Industry 4.0 like coding, AI, robotics, mechatronics, IOT, 3D printing, drones, and soft skills.

-30 Skill India International Centres to be set up across different States to skill youth for international opportunities.

-A National Digital Library for Children and Adolescents to be set-up for facilitating availability of quality books across geographies, languages, genres and levels, and device agnostic accessibility.

On the budgetary allocation for various schemes and ministries , there were some surprises.

The estimated expenditure for the Union Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, responsible for overseeing India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, has decreased marginally from Rs 7,681.80 crore to Rs 6,900.68 crore — the highest allocation is for grid-based solar power of around Rs 3,300 crore. On the flipside, public enterprises overseeing the mining of coal, such as Coal India Ltd, together saw a boost in resources from Rs 18,746 crore to Rs 21,420 crore. This is a true reflection of India consuming more coal in absolute terms in the years to come and our reliance on fossil fuel is on the increase.

The budget allocation for the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change increased from a revised estimate of Rs 2,478 crore in the last budget to Rs 3,079.4 crore this year.

A separate budget has been allocated for the National Mission on Natural Farming, at Rs 459 crore.

Also reflective of the government being clueless on the air quality front and relying heavily on EV's to decarbonize the transport sector are the following allocations

The budget for controlling air pollution increased from a revised estimate of Rs 600 crore last year to Rs 756 crore in the latest budget.

The Centre’s electric vehicle policy ‘Scheme for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric Vehicle in India’ saw a big boost from Rs 800 crore last year to Rs 2,908.28 crore.

The budget estimate for the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Program, a scheme with great potential for climate resilience and carbon sequestration, has been revised downwards from Rs 98,000 crore last year to Rs 73,000 crore. This could impede rural income and job creation as agriculture is becoming unremunerative and rural unemployment especially amongst youth is increasing.

Few significant reductions/ exemptions in the import duty front for the sustainable sector were

- extension of customs duty exemption on the import of capital goods and equipment needed to produce lithium-ion cells for use in electric vehicle batteries .

- relaxation of duty on electrolyzer, an important component for manufacturing green hydrogen

On the burning question of liveability in Indian cities . the finance minister failed to address the increasing air pollution, ground water depletion and polluting of water bodies, except in this manner -

She says ,"States and cities will be encouraged to undertake urban planning reforms and actions to transform cities into ‘sustainable cities of tomorrow’." and adds “This means efficient use of land resources, adequate resources for urban infrastructure, transit-oriented development, enhanced availability and affordability of urban land, and opportunities for all."

To sum up , The green theme was built up in the text and rendition of the FM and not surprisingly by the pro government media This is perhaps for a reason but to be fair , there were some sound all-round initiatives towards renewables , natural farming ,electric vehicles, skill and community development . We are aware that much of the action is outside of these announcements and the government is seized of the matter ,but there are certainly, few misses in this document.

Experts have pointed out that there are no budgetary allocations for crucial projects such as the National Climate Change Action Plan, the National Adaptation Plan and the National Mission on Himalayan Studies. This comes at a time when Joshimath and several other towns in the state of Uttarakhand in the Himalaya are facing land displacement. In general ,we have seen that this government has a thing for starting a new scheme , when something of the same order is already in existence or simply rebadging the old and claiming at as a ' brand new initiative '. So perhaps, there is a case for continuity and simplification of program/ programs based on a long term vision.

We believe that India's biggest issues at the moment are air quality ,surface and ground water contamination on account of waste disposal and continual depletion of ground water. Indian cities are becoming unliveable, with its infrastructure woes ,deteriorating air quality, lack of drinking water and sanitation challenges,. There is an urgent need for greater thrusts under the National Urban Renewal Mission scheme which was first initiated in 2005.

This budget remains silent on the burning of agricultural waste , deteriorating air quality across an area as large as the northern gangetic plains and rapidly depleting ground water on account of its rampant diversion for agriculture, almost everywhere in the subcontinent. It does not have any firm initiatives on making cities a great place to live except to trust few plans from the past. Smaller  thrust areas / solution, such as solar rooftops , rain water harvesting, modernizing waste management and disposal have been ignored. There is a need to identify the areas of environmental degradation and areas of the economy where environmental degradation has the greatest impact and take steps to address them. The economic survey 2023 too, unfortunately, didn’t have enough analysis or vision to aid the finance minister in developing a framework.

On the social side in the budget document ,job creation is largely ignored. Perhaps it is left to accruals from higher capital infrastructure spend which is little far fetched. Even if more jobs are created through capex as it is laid out in the budget it happens at the lower strata - both skilled and unskilled variety. Educated youth coming into the job market are finding no takers and the budget is not talking about investments in higher education or creating higher paying employment. There is no pressure to speak of ,on the industry, to add more jobs or to even invest more . This is shocking ! Both Indian and foreign companies operating in india have reaped and are reaping rich benefits from government policies to accrue higher earnings and growth. But they seem quite happy to turn in profits without taking on any extra ounce of social responsibility.

On a broader front while the environmental and social aspects of a scheme or a project or a spend is subject to a measure , there is much to be said about the obfuscation of data and transparency on the governance side.

No major initiative at the apex level of a government world over ,has succeeded without a good dose of fine tuning and a fall back assessment .Much depends on tinkering, fine tuning , assessing a particular initiative to get it right . This could also be a necessity across regions , terrains and cultures in India. The biggest problem with the BJP led central government in India is that they are completely averse to feedback. Much of any advice, is construed as criticism . Second, is a feeling in the government that any tall initiative being brought about is too big to fail. In this quest for jumbo initiatives , and in the absence of facilitating cooperation from all parties , there comes a need for duplication ,falsification ,one-upmanship, hyperbole , jingoism and what not ! This keeps the public guessing as to the real result of any undertaking . This is hurting India - both its citizens and the natural resources at the country's disposal.

The growth in jobs and opportunities has not kept pace with the population growth for a while now. Aspirations set by the leaders has not manifested to the bottom half of the pyramid and perhaps even to the middle class.

As a country vulnerable to climate change and also under pressure to uplift 150 million people from poverty (people with income of $2, or Rs 160, per day or less in purchasing power parity), India’s Union Budget 2023-24 should ideally reflect government spending that expands the social safety net and plans for low-carbon, climate-resilient development both at the same time. Has this government and the Finance minister managed to achieve this objective .

We would think not .But they cannot be faulted, for not trying! 

low carbon transport in india and are electric vehicles really the answer to the decarbonization of India's transport sector

 YOU MAY THINK THAT THE SWITCH TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES, IS AN INEVITABLE PROSPECT . WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIND SPACE, THAT IS DRIVING THIS CHANGE, BOTH IN THE MEDIA ,AND IN THE GOVERNMENT , IT MAKES SENSE ,TO GET A CLOSER LOOK AT FACTS.

Globally, transport accounts for 23% of the energy-related CO2 emissions, that feed global warming. Carbon emissions from the sector, are estimated to grow faster than most other sectors in the coming future. Therefore, decarbonization of transport, has seen a growing sense of seriousness among policymakers, and is now being viewed as an essential means to achieve, the global climate change mitigation targets.

India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, and, its national actions will significantly impact, the abatement of persisting emissions. India is also a party to the 2016 Paris agreements, and has made commitment ,to reducing emissions ,by one third, of its previous levels of 2005, by, the year 2030.

The transport sector in India, is presently powered almost entirely by carbon-intensive gasoline-based fuels. This is about 18% of the net emissions, from the entire Indian economy, in an year. The sector is largely oil dependent, and accounts for 13 % of the country’s energy-related CO2 emissions. While these numbers are extremely high, they are still well below the highest emitters such as China and the United States.

so should one be worried ? yes , because this is likely to change in a big way in the future! A Global Carbon Project report, out in 2018, points out ,that India’s carbon emissions are rising, more than twice as fast, as the global rise . As many would know, the per capita ownership of vehicles, is very low in India , even including that of goods and public transport. The average percentage of households that own a car in India, stands at 7.5 per cent, and that of those ,who own a two-wheeler ,stands at 49.5 per cent. As per the government figures, there are some 280 million registered vehicles, on the Indian roads . It could be considered still low perhaps , to service a 1.4 billion population. But the fact is, the economy is growing , the population is growing and the ownership of vehicles has grown quickly in the last decade ,and is well slated to grow, in the next one too.

Let us explain this, through some numbers . As per the figures put out by SIAM - society for Indian Automobile Manufacturers - The automobile sales in india, is at an average of 21.5 million plus units, in the last 6 years ,including that of the two years of pandemic, when the sales fell over 20%. In fact , the sales from the high of 26 million in 2017-18 fell ,to 20 million units, in 21-22. But, this is set, to rise again .

Going by many indications, the growth is normalizing in India. If the automobile sector start to add 25 to 30 million vehicles every year, from here on , then, we are talking about anywhere between 250 - 300 million new vehicles on the road, by the close of this decade . Accounting for some residue of the existing fleet of vehicles, already on the roads , India could be competing with China ,for the largest share of vehicles on its roads in the world, by 2030.

So what does this mean for India? In the business as usual scenario, it would mean, that the country’s busy roads ,will further choke to a stall with this increase in vehicles, but , there are other worries ! The bigger problem is, that of air quality ! What China is seemingly, in control of, and ,what India is woefully short on, for the moment ! As per WHO estimates, in a report in 2016,ten out of the twenty most polluted cities in the world, are in India. This study is based on the concentrations of PM2.5 emissions in the air which is most harmful, to human health. India was ranked the fifth most polluted country by WHO, in 2019, in a report which said that , 21 among the top 30 most polluted cities in the world , were in India. The Indian cities, on an average, exceeded the WHO threshold on air quality parameters ,by an alarming 500% ! The quality of air, is already at the threshold of toxic on an average , in the cities ,and towns, of a densely populated country. So all this development and increase in the number of vehicles could be, a double whammy for human health , for a country like India, if ,there is no serious control on the emissions.

Barun Agarwal of Breathe Easy consultants- who work on the air quality problems in Delhi and NCR calls this a national emergency. He says the problem is huge and is not restricted just to the metros of Delhi, Bangalore and Mumbai . He believes and demonstrates graphically from a map that the entire northern gangetic plains , including even some higher reaches of that area, suffers from poor air quality . He cites long term health concerns for people exposed to this on a daily basis causing the particulate matter to enter not only the human lungs but also the blood stream which then leads to a systemic organ deterioration. He says that in other countries when the outdoor air pollution is approaching 50 microns , it is a red flag , while in India it is BAU when the figures are over 100 at various places in the country and that too on a regular basis. Now, this coming from an home grown expert is bad news .

So what is the answer and more importantly - response from the government . It would be fair to say that the government is seized of the matter . India’s transport policies have evolved rapidly over the last two decades . While the environment protection act was formulated in 1986, and the motor vehicles act in 1988 the exigencies of present times rapidly led to rejig of policies from 2001. two important one’s in the context of this piece are the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP), 2006 and National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2013. Further, the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and EV (FAME) was introduced in 2015 to reduce the initial purchasing costs and early adoption of EVs and hybrid vehicles. This was followed by FAME II in 2019 .

In the last couple of years the government has zeroed in on a mitigation strategy to combat pollution . It is four pronged and involves 4 areas of concern .

a) modal shift to greener transport b) vehicular efficiency c) Electric Vehicles d) Biofuels

Let us examine each of them and their respective challenges

A-modal shift to greener transport

According to the Union minister for roads and Highways Mr Nithin Gadkhari - India has the second largest road network in the world with 58,00,000 kms .Only 2% of this network is are national highways and 70% of the goods in the country is transported on a road network he says - meaning efficient , green and modern . His plans are to get this to double in few years time.

Overall , roads account for 87% of all goods and people movement in the country. railways , which are much efficient modes of transport in terms of cost and emission account for only 11%. Air and waterways are minuscule. ‘why would you not expand the railway infrastructure’ ? you may ask . well ! The Indian railways, which is a state monopoly is a loss making enterprise and largely remains a low cost people carrier .There are political ramifications to increase prices. while in the case of roads , these can be built quickly and tolls are a good way to offset the cost and manage the subsequent maintenance.

Another mode of transport that India is betting big on is aviation - according to the government website 'investindia'-

‘In 2010, 79 million people traveled to/from/or within India. By 2017 that doubled to 158 million, and this number is expected to reach 520 mn by 2037. With the air passenger traffic projected to increase, the Indian aviation industry is on a high-growth path. India witnessed double digit growth in domestic air cargo of 12.1% in 2018-19 over 2017-18. Total cargo handled reached 3.56MMT.The nation’s airplane fleet is projected to quadruple in size to approximately 2500 airplanes by 2038. Currently, the country has 130 operational airports including 29 international, 91 domestic, and 10 custom airports. To augment the airport infrastructure the government aims to develop 100 airports by 2024 (under the UDAN Scheme) and expects to invest $1.83 bn in the development of airport infrastructure by 2026.The Indian Civil Aviation MRO market, , stands presently at around $900 million and is anticipated to grow to $4.33 billion by 2025, increasing at a CAGR of about 14-15%' 

This could be much needed for India and its economic progress but does this spell well for emissions? Aviation as many know accounts for 2.5% of global carbon emission and efforts are on to reduce the same world over .India perhaps, cannot afford to at least for the moment but needs to at some stage. The union minister for transport Nithin Ghadkari recently said that a ‘multimodal approach in transport will only enable india to a 5 trillion dollar economy’. Now , that is sensible perhaps but does multiple modes lead to lower emission . Yes in some cases they do ! , In the case of the move to mass rapid transit in the bigger metros and smaller cities , it is helping and more of it is even required for india . Here there is a payback for the government on its investment and the citizens enjoy a cheaper travel inside a city .Things have worked out quite well in the last 5 years or so with many of the metro projects starting to see completions but more are needed as people are gravitating to the bigger cities and towns as the economic activity accelerates at these places.

India is far flung and geographically diverse country. It will struggle to have a one plan fits all kind of a solution. Therefore any lower cost alternative to reduce emission is paramount. While walking , cycling and reducing carbon footprint is seen as an urban middle class trend , these lifestyle changes would take many years to create a significant impact considering the size of the problem .

B- Second thrust from the government has been on vehicular efficiencies . Today all new vehicles are on Bharat stage 6 or BS 6 which is equivalent of Euro 6 emission norms . Both the automotive sector and the government has worked quite hard to transform the technologies and implementation respectively starting year 2000 when the emission norms were first brought in. Besieged with the magnitude of the problem of air quality , a court directed advancement to BS6 was achieved from BS 4 skipping the BS 5 level completely. This was done in April 2020 - a year ahead of schedule.

In addition fuel economy standards have been mandated for all passenger cars and heavy duty vehicles .The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE)—an agency within the India Ministry of Power notified minimum fuel efficiency norms for passenger vehicles. Two sets of Average Fuel Consumption Standards were announced in 2014- one set for fiscal years 2016-17 to 2020-21 and another for fiscal year 2022-23 onwards .Basically this mandates an improvement over time aided through better technology from the auto makers. Indian passenger vehicles sales both the 2 and 4 wheeler have traditionally seen a correlation with fuel economy not because of any mandate but simply because that fuel cost per litre of gasoline is and always been very high relatively and even compared globally .This affects the citizen where it hurts most and automakers pay heed to this requirement quite closely.

C- Electric vehicles - With road transport slated to be the number one means of transport for many years to come and no replacement in sight , the government in India , clearly is in a bind . So the best alternative would be to make road transport in itself a less polluting one . With this in mind , the government has launched an ambitious drive towards EV’s . The NITI Aayog which is a planning body for the government, made an announcement that said if FAME II  and other measures are successful, India could realize EV sale penetration of 30% for private cars, 70% for commercial cars, 40% for buses, and 80% for two- and three-wheelers by 2030. Now the government is all set to use this as the target to be achieved so that all the sins of carbonization can be washed away and India can continue to be on the growth curve, keeping pollution from vehicles in check. But is this plausible ?

Well! let us examine this issue in a little more depth - until 2019 the Electric vehicle penetration was approximately  a meagre 100,000 units in total . This is despite all kinds of policy measures and hype in prevalence, from nearly 5 years prior. To my mind, what enabled a change in mindset can be attributed to two things - rising fuel costs and slowdown in the economy . 2019-20 was the first time in many years when sales of vehicles in general was in the negative .The fuel cost went to over a dollar per litre of gasoline and continued to rise. Then came the pandemic. By then the need for a low cost transport more than a less polluting one, became imperative. India reigns as the world's biggest market for scooters and motorcycles with a sale of 19 million units in 2018. Therefore some thing was going to give and it did.

Citizens as usual looked for the change . The passenger 3 wheeler market which is largely unorganized had already started to look for local battery powered solutions and were very early adopters in the metros. As things would have it , few manufacturers had a skeletal offering in 2 wheel and three wheel segment and it was lapped up , prompting more to join the fray. Ather Energy, a Bengaluru based hardware start up, launched the India’s first electric scooter “S340”. The scooter covered the distance of 60 Km in one single charge and had a Lithium Ion battery pack IP67. As claimed by company, the S340 offers an un-compromised ride for 50,000 km. As on date there is a plethora of players in the two wheeler segment and also some in the 4 wheeler and action definitely is on the increase.

As per data available with the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways A total of 13,92,265 Electric Vehicles (EVs) are being used on the roads of India as on 3rd August 2022, what does not get told more often is that more than 50% of them are e-autos/e-rickshaws. In comparison, there are 27.81 crore or 278.1 million registered non-electric vehicles. While the ratio appears small, it is slowly improving. The total no. of Electric vehicles sold in india in the last 4 quarters Q2 21 to Q1 22 is impressive - 6,53,000 numbers . This volume has come mainly from 2 and 3 wheelers .electric two wheelers is 63% , electric 3 wheelers for passenger commute is 27%. while electric 3 wheeler for cargos is at 4% of the total sales . Cars or 4 wheelers -passenger and private is 5%. e buses are less than 0.5%. Now let us go back to the desired outcome for the country i.e. - at least 50% of all vehicles in 2030 to be on run on electricity , which would be anywhere between 150 - 200 million by volume at that point in time . This gives a targeted breakup of somewhere between 15-20 million a year starting now . Unfortunately the base figure is at a little more than half a million in the past year . therefore it does not need an expert to figure out that this will require quite a steep upward trajectory.

The minimum to aim for as a target if one is serious about getting even close to the target, would be to double the presence of EV's on Indian roads  every year . An exponential growth is needed in the first 5 years from now on.  But there are some challenges . let us enumerate some .

a) Infrastructure for charging - So the oft repeated question everywhere - globally , across countries is do we have enough charging stations? so it is a need of the hour . how many does india have . As per the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), as of March 25 2022, a total of 10,76,420 EVs were on Indian roads  and a total of 1,742 Public Charging Stations (PCS), are operational. More importantly how many does India need if it’s ambition with electric vehicles need to play out.To understand this better let us look at the conventional (fossil fuel) fueling infrastructure in India .There are nearly 80,000 petrol stations and all of which presumably are at public locations to service the present number of vehicles (27 crore ). Does that mean if EV’s have to be 50% of the market in the future off course  , the strike rates need to be as similar ? Perhaps not.  

There is one thing which does not happen with petrol and gasoline . That is home charging . experts have divided consumption profiles for EVs on these patterns  - residential societies , corporate complexes charging for office goers , highway charging for travelers and long distance commercial fleet. Inside the city charging for 3 wheel rickshaw , fleet cars , E buses etc. So, maybe the infrastructure will keep pace with requirement in India .

b)Kinds of chargers and specifications  - The Ministry of Power has issued "Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles - the revised consolidated Guidelines and Standards" on January 14, 2022, to accelerate the e-mobility transition in the country. there is rationalization and citizens should cope . In any case , the Teslas of the world , which believe in their own chargers are still not in India

c)Lithium Ion batteries - At the moment a gold standard. Most batteries today are on Lithium ion technology . 

lithium ion batteries account for 30-40% of the cost of an electric vehicle. Falling battery prices in recent years spurred its growth but the on going Russia Ukraine war has hit supply chains and stalled the slide in battery prices .Potential shortages of critical raw materials in the lithium ion battery namely Lithium Nickel Copper , Cobalt ,Manganese and graphite . With global demand for batteries estimated to grow tenfold , India will have worry about its options . For one, all these critical elements mentioned is imported at the moment . Even if plants to assemble and manufacture batteries are set up, as is being done currently in India, the raw material import supply chain and cost vagaries would continue to haunt the country .India does have deposits Nickel , Mn, Cu and Al . Also it is the second largest producer of graphite . It will still need to invest in mining them and also rely on imports of Lithium and cobalt in a big way . India’s minister of state for road transport and highways VK Singh has publicly stated that the ‘the country needs to get out lithium ion battery technology at the earliest as the country has no control over the commodity'.

While India mulls on its options for the future and continues in its journey of EVs in the current environment , there is some hope from researchers on the environmental footprint catastrophe of large scale mining - scientist have found a way to recycle the batteries . Retired batteries could be be used , they say to supply world’s next generation of lithium , Co and Mn and Ni . However these are still to be authenticated at any significant scale .

d)Safety -Another aspect with EV’s in India were some major concerns with its safety . The Ministry of road transport and Highways in India sent out notices to all EV manufacturers in the country in mid 2022 ,- to explain why they should not be punished for any fire related incidents which occur in their vehicles in the hands of the consumer . This seemingly sharp reaction comes in the wake of many fire related incidents especially amongst the two wheeler EV segment in the first few months of 2022 . The many incidents lead to loss of life, property and threatened to derail India’s first major rush into the EV world . This also lead to an uproar amongst the lawmakers and public as to the safety of the vehicles with an apparently thermal charged and volatile bomb in the form of a battery pack . Units were recalled and EV makers went back to reviewing their safety standards . While the incident is now slowly fading from the public memory , one may recall that fires in EV have been reported before and continue to be in the news ,from time to time ,across the world including in high profile Teslas and Bolts . It has been continuously argued that the battery pack is susceptible to operating temperature flashpoints and thermal management is a huge factor at play here . In India’s case though , possibly batteries of all kinds including some dubious ones have been imported from across the world by more that 100 companies now operating in the space , all of which has sprung up in the last few years that could have lead to the slip in safety standards. But interestingly and globally never has the EV world certified itself to be immune to a fire incident , not yet . Scientists are at pains to explain that the advent of battery technology is ever changing and striving to improve constantly . Lithium ion technology is giving way to LFP or phosphate technology standards, for better safety while doing away with reliance on cobalt is improving energy density which gives us higher mileage on a charge . Bottomline being that batteries will continue to evolve in all aspects and safety will also improve. Accidents, unfortunately could be around the corner but will definitely, be a rare occurrence. Now , is this aspect a challenge to the prospect of EV introduction in India . Hmmm, may be not so much but then all concerned need to be careful .

e)Taxes and rebates - there is no major let up on reducing it by the authorities. Cost of EV is no less or even higher than petrol and diesel vehicles, discouraging a faster consumer adoption . There is too much pressure on the automobile manufacturers to reduce cost while there is a reluctance to reduce taxes by the union and state governments. As per SIAM figures , the total taxes at the highest slabs on vehicles are close to 50% of the manufactured costs . The government has made the right noises and reduced the GST to 5% for EVs. Let us look into this aspect a little more. 

World over ,there is a clamor to cut costs of electric vehicles and get it on par with ICE powered vehicles , so that the demand gets mainstream .In this scheme of things , the tax burden on the manufacturers and the customer in India on the contrary , continues to be on the higher side . At the manufacturer’s end , the applied taxes are of two kinds - GST , which for EV’s is a flat 5% across segments and a variable compensation cess between 1% and 22% . So a relevant , affordable category of electric cars ( for a mid income group of buyers ) with 170 mm ground clearance , length of more than 4 meters and an engine capacity more than 1500 cc , would attract an additional cess of 22% above the GST, taking its effective duty to 27% . there is more to contend with for the customer. at the retail end. To register a vehicle across any state across India , one will have to pay a Road tax , which is anywhere between 6-8% for electric cars and other charges like registration charge , hypothecation charge , state development charge or parking fees , number plate charge , temporary registration , fast tag etc. as applicable to a state where the tax is being applied . Most of this ,at the retail end become a state subject and therefore varies from one to another . While the center has put out various schemes for EV’s on its e - Amrit portal , like purchase incentives, coupons which can be reimbursed later ,interest reduction, road tax exemption , registration fee exemption ,Income tax benefit, scrapping incentives and other ,there is a lack of transparency , coherence and coordination and even compliance amongst its various states. While there is much pressure on the automobile manufacturers to reduce cost, there appears a reluctance to reduce taxes by the union and state governments and these measures are perceived by the citizens and the automakers both as largely cosmetic.

After electric vehicles the 4th and final strategy of the government is 

D- Shift to bio fuels - To begin ,what is a bio fuel - It is broadly a fuel, distilled  from processing any biomass. The term biomass refers to organic matter that comes from plants and animals . It can be anything even waste. Unlike other renewable energy sources, biomass can be converted directly into liquid fuels, called "biofuels," The two most common types of biofuels in use today are ethanol and biodiesel, both of which represent the first generation of biofuel technology. Ethanol is an alcohol used as a blending agent with gasoline to increase octane and cut down carbon monoxide and other smog-causing emissions. The most common blend of ethanol is E10 (10% ethanol, 90% gasoline) This is already approved for use with the present ICE engines in india . According to the ministry , All petrol in india used as on date carries a blend of 10% ethanol . Now this can go safely unto 20% with some modification by the auto manufacturers' in the present engines and this is slated to happen as well. With Automakers developing what is called flexible fuel vehicles, which are designed to run on E85 (a gasoline-ethanol blend containing 51%–83% ethanol, depending on geography and season), an alternative fuel with much higher ethanol content than regular gasoline. Biodiesel on the other hand is a liquid fuel produced from renewable sources, such as new and used vegetable oils and animal fats and is a cleaner-burning replacement for petroleum-based diesel fuel. Biodiesel is nontoxic and biodegradable and is produced by combining alcohol with vegetable oil, animal fat, or recycled cooking grease. Like petroleum-derived diesel, biodiesel is used to fuel compression-ignition (diesel) engines. Biodiesel can be blended with petroleum diesel in any percentage, including B100 (pure biodiesel) and, the most common blend, B20 (a blend containing 20% biodiesel and 80% petroleum diesel).

Summary - These are the essence of our discussion

India needs low carbon transport as urgently, if not more urgently than the world

Air quality problem in India is acute

Indian transport volume both in terms of goods , people and carrier is seeing a burgeoning growth much higher than any other country

Road transport will remain a favourite mode while this being also the main source of pollution and emission

Indian government has set tough emission targets for itself to achieve by 2030 and is rolling out schemes to facilitate the turnaround in technology and infrastructure

The biggest bet at the moment seems to be on the electric vehicle penetration to reduce fossil fuel induced emission.

Will these strategies work for India ? We do not know yet but the future will be a witness to it . At the moment both India and World should be worried and put their best foot forward to make it work for everyone's sake ! 

Conference of Parties or COP as it is referred to...... and India’s dilemmas with green house gas emissions .

 Conference of parties, as you perhaps know, is a global summit on climate change. It is held by parties, to the UNFCCC, on climate change. It is like an international treaty, with the primary aim, to stabilize, the greenhouse gas emission, globally.

Right after the Rio ‘earth summit’, the United nations, framework convention, on climate change was created in 1992. The first COP was held, in Berlin, in 1995. There has been one held every year, since then, except for 2020, when it was not held, due to Covid .

The Paris agreement of COP, brought about an ambition's meeting ground between the countries, and approximately 200 world leaders, representing them. what was agreed upon, was an historic, target of, plus 2 degrees Celsius increase in temperature, to be kept as a threshold, for the planet. This net change, was not to be crossed over, the 1990 levels, for the world to push back on the changing climate. This was unprecedented. And finally, a target of 2 degrees, became an overarching theme, for everyone, to rally towards. The climate change debate, rapidly democratized towards one parameter i.e. Greenhouse gases, and Net emissions, from member nations. Now it was for every concerned member nations, party to the Paris agreement, to lay out their Nationally determined commitments or NDC's, against this objective.

The COP, has been about pledges, plans, and commitments by member nations, in the last 5-6 years. The member nations, also pledged, to keep the Green House Gas emissions, below 1.5 degrees Celsius, through aggressive NDC’s.

This is the reason, Paris agreement, becomes the most common go to, for most climate change activists and crusaders, as much, for the global companies, and, economies . The Paris agreement, put in place, a review mechanism, and set a deadline, of 2025, for the measures proposed by member nations, to lead, to its objective of 2 degree rise, in global temperature . Unfortunately , 6 years since , the situation is as follows. The global emission, currently, is at, plus 1.1 degree Celsius, from the 1990 levels. If, the entire NDC’s, proposed by the member nations, are even, truly implemented, the emission levels actually would increase, to an alarming 2.4 degrees . That means that the nations are not collectively, committing enough to the cause. If every targets, are to be implemented, on the ground, the emission level, would still remain, at 2.1 degrees Celsius . With, full implementation, of every announced commitments, the target can move down, to a somewhat acceptable figure, of 1.8 degrees . This is the larger picture . On the ground, there are many existing and emerging realities. Let us look at ,some of them.

There is an increasing divide, between the developed nations , which comprises, of most of the European union , US , Canada, Japan and Australia, and, the developing world, which includes most of Africa , Latin America and Asia , with two big countries, in it ,namely, china and India. Then there are also nations, whose livelihood, and existence, is threatened, on account of climate change. They are the ones, demanding, quick action. The trouble is that, the developed nations, have contributed to the present level of pollution, and are seen as responsible, for the present state of the problem . At the same time the, developing ones are on the threshold of becoming more developed, and would require to emit CO2 to grow their economies . To add to this, the developed world, still continues to be the the largest polluters, even while they have outsourced the goods and services consumed by them, to the developing world. This is making the situation precarious and inequitable . equitable distribution has become a major sore point. Even as the developing nations, commit to a net zero emission level, for themselves, by the year 2050 , it wants the rest of the world to be net zero, by the same time. This would not be possible for the global south as the developing nations are referred to, without sacrificing, their own impending growth. They would need help in the form of new technologies and finance from the global North. Therefore, in good faith, it was agreed, that the developed world, or the global north, will help the global south - the developing ones, with financial assistance, and, newer technologies, for a faster adoption towards a less polluting world .

Unfortunately, this is not seeing much traction .A promise of 100 billion dollars, as a goodwill finance agreed upon as early as 2009, is still to be disbursed . So, the transition towards a greener world, is quickly seeing, a financial bottleneck, as most have realized, that, it is not billions that is required, but trillions of dollars, which is needed to make effective changes on the ground .

Now ! let us look at India's position, and status in the existing situation globally. India’s prime minister, Narender Modi , in his UNFCCC address, has sought 2.5 trillion dollars towards India’s first NDC goals . He said that India needs ,1 trillion dollar immediately . India’s problems are, ever slowly increasing, on many counts .

First issue is that, for India to cut its carbon intensity by 45 %, it will have to make, a substantial move ,away from its coal-reliant, power sector . According to a Bloomberg NEF data, more than 70% of India’s electricity came from coal power plants, last year.

Second is that India’s transportation sector, which contributes to near about one tenth, of India's GDP , relies, nearly nine-tenths on fossil fuel . The Air pollution levels, in most of the populated areas of India, especially in the gangetic plains, of Northern India, is abysmal, and is already crossing the threshold, of being toxic for humans . The ground water and the surface water as per many indications and studies, are largely polluted across the Country .

Extreme climate occurrences, are on the rise, as is being witnessed, over the last decade in the Indian subcontinent .The recent floods in Pakistan has been devastating. The Himalayas, is seeing its largest melting of ice over its entire history, on account of, global warming . Himalayas , is the source of many large South Asian rivers, which act as a lifeline, to millions of people along its path in India , Pakistan, Bangladesh , Nepal , China, and others.

In India ,the pressure is much on the national think tank ,from all quarters including that of UNFCCC. In response, India did well to formulate an action strategy, on emissions which said the following. India said, it will reduce 1 billion tonnes or 1 Giga Tonnes of CO2, from now, to 2030 . Basically, the increase is envisaged from, now at 2.88 GT to 4.48 GT in 2030, to be curtailed to 3.48 GT instead. India has promised, its 50% energy requirements to come from renewables - It wants its present capacity to scale to 500 Giga Watts of electricity, from non fossil fuel.

India has said that, it will reduce their carbon intensity, to less than 45% for the economy from 2005 levels by 2030. Off course, the prime minister, did announce a Net zero on emissions, by the year 2070 recently . Incidentally, china has promised to get to net zero by 2060, while the developed world, like we mentioned before has stuck to 2050, as their targeted year to achieve net zero emissions. India's per capita emission, will be one of the lowest, amongst all countries by 2030 at 2.6 tonnes per person, up from the present 2.3 tonnes per person, largely, on account of a high population count, projecting forward.

The targets specified in the case of India, look ambitious. While perhaps, Mr. Modi, has issued a caveat to India doing its bit, subject to availability of financial assistance, he in a way is echoing the sentiments of the developing world.

Notwithstanding the global financing situation, the question remains on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. How exactly would this be achieved? As per the numbers stacking up, if India and china fail to achieve curbs on emission, the world will not veer, towards reduction, and if they do indeed go the full hog, it will certainly set the tone for the entire, Asia and Africa to emulate, and take the world to a better place. Simply because, these are the regions, where the bulk of the population, in the world, is at the moment. For the world at large and for India in particular, the global geo politics, and state of economy in the last year, or so, is painting, a gloomy picture .

while the world, reeled under the impact of pandemic, and supply chain disruptions, in the last few years, the beginning of this year, saw the Russia - Ukraine war taking, centerstage. With war and inflation, hitting the western world, soaring price of oil and gas has and economies tanking, things are far from ominous. US which is major indicator of world economy has tightened up with interest rate hikes, and impending slowdown in growth, which in turn has forced a slow down, all across the globe. Europe is already under a recessionary trend, and under increasing pressure from the disruption mainly to its economy due to the war, in its neighborhood.

In this scenario, it will be unrealistic, to see global lending towards climate financing in a manner which is aggressive. Hence the pains of Glasgow, and COP 26 well may carry to COP 27, and Sharm el Sheikh.